
Over the last three months, the Nifty has added 2,000 points, heading back towards the 25,000 mark.
F&O Series | Returns (Points) |
May 2025 | 587 |
April 2025 | 655 |
March 2025 | 1,047 |
February 2025 | -705 |
With the June series starting from today's session, a look back at history shows that this month has generally been kind to the Nifty in terms of returns. Last year, the Nifty had surged 7% during the June series. The index has delivered positive returns in three out of the last four June series.
June Series Year | Returns (Points) | Returns (%) |
2021 | 453 | 3 |
2022 | -390 | -2.4 |
2023 | 651 | 3.6 |
2024 | 1,556 | 6.9 |
Going into the June series, the rollovers for the Nifty remain the same as they were at the start of the March series at 79.1%, higher than April, but lower than March.
F&O Series | Rollovers |
June | 79.1% |
May | 79.1% |
April | 76.1% |
March | 83.6% |
February | 80.8% |
Open interest on the Nifty at the start of the series is at 1.26 crore shares, which is the highest since the start of the March series.
F&O Series | Nifty Open Interest |
June | 1.26 Crore |
May | 1.15 Crore |
April | 1.24 Crore |
March | 1.68 Crore |
February | 1.73 Crore |
Foreign institutions have trimmed their long positions on the Nifty at the start of the June series, and are at half of the levels that were seen at the start of the April and May series. Client long exposure is currently at 61%.
Month | FII Longs In Futures |
June | 20% |
May | 41% |
April | 40% |
March | 16% |
February | 11% |
With the earnings season coming to an end, the Nifty will look towards the monetary policy decision of he Reserve Bank of India next Friday. With inflation receding, there would be hopes of another rate cut by the central bank. The other domestic trigger that the markets will have their eyes on will be the progress and spread of the monsoon.
Globally, developments on the tariff front, a potential courtroom drama looming, and whether India signs the first tranche of the trade deal with the US this month will be a key factor for the markets.