Shares of debt-ridden telecom service provider Vodafone Idea Ltd. will be in focus on Tuesday, June 3, after analysts tracking the stock remain divided on the company's prospects going forward.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has an 'Outperform' rating on the stock. The foreign brokerage has a price target of ₹8 per share, implying a potential upside of 14% from Monday's closing levels.
According to CLSA, capital expenditure in Q4 FY25 was the highest quarterly spend since the company’s merger. Vodafone Idea has planned a total capex outlay of ₹50,000–55,000 crore.
The company’s total broadband sites have reached 4.94 lakh, and it plans to launch 5G services across 17 circles by August 2025.
Management said that Q4 revenue marked the company’s highest daily revenue in the past five years. They also said that Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to rise, with further tariff hikes deemed essential.
The CEO said the board’s recent fund-raise approval is an enabling resolution. The company’s current focus remains on securing bank funding.
Citi has maintained a 'Buy' recommendation on Vodafone Idea but has slashed its price target to ₹10.
In Q4, revenues declined 1% quarter-on-quarter to ₹11,000 crore, broadly in line with estimates. Cash EBITDA (ex-IndAS) fell 5% QoQ to ₹2,320 crore, coming in 2% below expectations.
While ARPU remained flat QoQ, also in line with expectations, subscriber losses narrowed during the quarter.
On a year-on-year basis, ARPU rose 12%, driven by tariff hikes. However, revenue grew only 4%, reflecting ongoing subscriber attrition.
The Q4 net loss widened sequentially from ₹6,600 crore to ₹7,200 crore, versus Citi’s estimate of ₹7,300 crore.
Citi mentioned that while rising capex is driving improved 4G coverage, the launch of 5G services, and narrowing subscriber losses, the completion of the pending debt raise remains critical to sustain momentum. This, in turn, appears contingent on clarity or relief around AGR dues.
Motilal Oswal has reiterated its 'Sell' rating on Vodafone Idea, with an unchanged price target of ₹6.5.
The brokerage said that Vodafone Idea continues to lose market share to peers due to lower ARPU translation, given its inferior subscriber mix and elevated subscriber churn.
Despite the likely capex, Motilal believes regaining subscribers would be a tall ask for Vi, given its peers’ superior free cash flow generation and deeper pockets.
Moreover, the brokerage believes the company’s network investments remain contingent on debt raise, which, in turn, is dependent on continued support of AGR relief.
Stabilisation of the subscriber base, along with further relief from the government, remains imperative for Vi’s long-term survival, Motilal said.
Vodafone Idea's net loss on a sequential basis widened to ₹7,166 crore from a loss of ₹6,609 crore that it had reported during the December quarter.
Revenue for the quarter also fell 0.9% from the previous period. In comparison, Bharti Airtel's India mobile revenue went up by 1.3%, while Reliance Jio's topline grew by 2.4% during the same period.
The telco had recently warned that it may not be able to continue beyond the current fiscal if more support from the government is not forthcoming. The government, after the recent conversion of dues into equity, has a 49% stake in Vodafone Idea.
Of the 21 analysts that track Vodafone Idea, 11 of them have a 'Sell' rating on the counter, while five analysts each have a 'Buy' and 'Sell' recommendation.
Shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd. settled 1.45% higher on Monday at ₹7.02. The stock is down over 12% so far in 2025.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has an 'Outperform' rating on the stock. The foreign brokerage has a price target of ₹8 per share, implying a potential upside of 14% from Monday's closing levels.
According to CLSA, capital expenditure in Q4 FY25 was the highest quarterly spend since the company’s merger. Vodafone Idea has planned a total capex outlay of ₹50,000–55,000 crore.
The company’s total broadband sites have reached 4.94 lakh, and it plans to launch 5G services across 17 circles by August 2025.
Management said that Q4 revenue marked the company’s highest daily revenue in the past five years. They also said that Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to rise, with further tariff hikes deemed essential.
The CEO said the board’s recent fund-raise approval is an enabling resolution. The company’s current focus remains on securing bank funding.
Citi has maintained a 'Buy' recommendation on Vodafone Idea but has slashed its price target to ₹10.
In Q4, revenues declined 1% quarter-on-quarter to ₹11,000 crore, broadly in line with estimates. Cash EBITDA (ex-IndAS) fell 5% QoQ to ₹2,320 crore, coming in 2% below expectations.
While ARPU remained flat QoQ, also in line with expectations, subscriber losses narrowed during the quarter.
On a year-on-year basis, ARPU rose 12%, driven by tariff hikes. However, revenue grew only 4%, reflecting ongoing subscriber attrition.
The Q4 net loss widened sequentially from ₹6,600 crore to ₹7,200 crore, versus Citi’s estimate of ₹7,300 crore.
Citi mentioned that while rising capex is driving improved 4G coverage, the launch of 5G services, and narrowing subscriber losses, the completion of the pending debt raise remains critical to sustain momentum. This, in turn, appears contingent on clarity or relief around AGR dues.
Motilal Oswal has reiterated its 'Sell' rating on Vodafone Idea, with an unchanged price target of ₹6.5.
The brokerage said that Vodafone Idea continues to lose market share to peers due to lower ARPU translation, given its inferior subscriber mix and elevated subscriber churn.
Despite the likely capex, Motilal believes regaining subscribers would be a tall ask for Vi, given its peers’ superior free cash flow generation and deeper pockets.
Moreover, the brokerage believes the company’s network investments remain contingent on debt raise, which, in turn, is dependent on continued support of AGR relief.
Stabilisation of the subscriber base, along with further relief from the government, remains imperative for Vi’s long-term survival, Motilal said.
Vodafone Idea's net loss on a sequential basis widened to ₹7,166 crore from a loss of ₹6,609 crore that it had reported during the December quarter.
Revenue for the quarter also fell 0.9% from the previous period. In comparison, Bharti Airtel's India mobile revenue went up by 1.3%, while Reliance Jio's topline grew by 2.4% during the same period.
The telco had recently warned that it may not be able to continue beyond the current fiscal if more support from the government is not forthcoming. The government, after the recent conversion of dues into equity, has a 49% stake in Vodafone Idea.
Of the 21 analysts that track Vodafone Idea, 11 of them have a 'Sell' rating on the counter, while five analysts each have a 'Buy' and 'Sell' recommendation.
Shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd. settled 1.45% higher on Monday at ₹7.02. The stock is down over 12% so far in 2025.
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First Published: Jun 3, 2025 8:29 AM IST
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