Source: ZeeBusiness
On the sidelines of the RBI MPC announcement, the apex bank has retained its GDP forecast at 6.5 per cent for the FY 2026. However,Zee Business analysts expected RBI to likely change GDP or growth forecast in the wake of trade tensions which have resurfaced again.
Importantly, GDP projection has been held steady- with the growth rate for all quarters remaining unchanged. For the first quarter of FY26, the GDP growth rate is estimated at 6.5 per cent, followed by 6.7 per cent and 6.6 per cent for the subsequent quarters. Likewise, for the last quarter of FY26, GDP is projected at 6.3 per cent.
During 2025-26 so far, domestic economic activity has exhibited resilience. Agriculture sector remains strong. With a very good harvest in both the kharif as well as rabi cropping seasons, the supply of major food crops is comfortable. The reservoir levels remain healthy. The highest procurement of wheat6 in the last four years provides a comforting stock position. Industrial activity is gaining gradually, even though the pace of recovery is uneven. Services sector is expected to maintain momentum. PMI services stood strong at 58.8 in May 2025, indicating robust expansion in activity.
Arsh Mogre, Economist, PL Capital on the monetary policy announcement remarked, "this is not business-as-usual monetary policy. It is a deliberate realignment based on a rare convergence: falling inflation, stable external accounts, and the need to pre-empt global slowdown spillovers. Far from being reactive, the RBI is executing a calibrated pivot—bold in dosage, balanced in posture, and anchored in data. The June MPC has effectively reset the macro template: from inflation vigilance to growth activation, with precision and restraint.”
Pranay Aggarwal, Director and CEO of Stoxkart- a discount brokerage firm said, P"The downward revision in the inflation forecast to 3.7% for FY26 and retention of the 6.5% GDP growth projection adds further comfort. It shows confidence in the disinflationary trend and the resilience of the Indian economy, even amid external uncertainties. Overall, these measures are likely to have a positive impact on the markets, reducing borrowing costs, supporting rate-sensitive sectors like housing and auto, and boosting investor confidence."
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