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Dixon Tech is now a 'high-conviction' stock for CLSA; Six analysts expect over ₹20,000 levels

Published on: May 21, 2025, 9:10 am

Source: CNBCTV18

Dixon Tech is now a 'high-conviction' stock for CLSA; Six analysts expect over ₹20,000 levels

The management has sustained its FY26 and FY27 smartphone volume guidance of 40-45 mn and 60-65 mn units, respectively, as the major exports opportunity from Motorola, IsmartU, and Compal would help offset the regulatory delay to FY27 in the commencement of the Vivo joint venture.

Profile imageBy Meghna Sen  May 21, 2025, 8:33:08 AM IST (Published)
3 Min Read
Dixon Tech is now a 'high-conviction' stock for CLSA; Six analysts expect over ₹20,000 levels
Shares of Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. will react to its March quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 21, following a strong performance for the January-March period. While analysts have maintained their stance on the stock, some have raised their price targets, while others have lowered them after the results.




The consensus target suggests a potential downside of around 2% from the current levels.



CLSA has a ‘High Conviction Outperform’ rating on Dixon Technologies, following an in-line Q4 performance, and has raised its price target to ₹19,000.



The brokerage expects smartphone volumes to rise to 42-44 million units in FY26 and over 60 million in FY27, compared to 6.5 million and 28 million in FY24 and FY25, respectively. This growth is driven by new customer additions, increased wallet share, and strong export momentum.



While margins may moderate in FY27 as PLI scheme benefits taper off, CLSA believes backward integration, operational efficiencies, and scale will support medium-term margin improvement. It also expects new segments like IT hardware (laptops) and industrial EMS to start contributing meaningfully from FY27 onward.



Q4 EBITDA was largely in line with estimates, though net profit came in lower due to higher minority interest. On the back of strong revenue growth and improving margins, CLSA projects a 45% CAGR in PAT over FY25–28.



Nomura has a 'Buy' rating On Dixon Technologies, with a price target of ₹21,202.



The brokerage said Dixon’s Q4 results were ahead of estimates, with the mobile segment ramping up well across both domestic and export markets. Rising value addition is expected to support margin expansion.



Nomura also said that the company’s diverse client base, ongoing acquisitions, and strategic partnerships are helping build a strong competitive moat.



Dixon Technologies currently trades at 52 times its projected FY27 earnings per share (EPS).



Morgan Stanley has an 'Equal-Weight' rating on Dixon Tech, with a price target of ₹8,696 per share.



The brokerage wrote in its note that Dixon’s revenue missed expectations due to broad-based declines across key segments. However, EBITDA beat estimates by 8%, driven by operational efficiency, with margins improving across segments.



Net profit came in below estimates, mainly due to a higher effective tax rate of 34.5%. A one-time gain of ₹250 crore was recorded from the stake sale in Aditya Infotech.



Nuvama Institutional Equities has maintained a 'Hold' rating, while revising its price target to ₹15,470 from ₹14,900 earlier.



The brokerage mentioned about Dixon’s unparalleled execution and balance sheet management but added that the stock’s rich valuation constrains remains a limiting factor.



The brokerage has raised its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by 3–5% to reflect the Q4 performance and outlook.



Emkay Global has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Dixon Technologies but has lowered its price target by 6% to ₹19,800.



The management has sustained its FY26 and FY27 smartphone volume guidance of 40-45 million and 60-65 million units, respectively, as the major exports opportunity from Motorola, IsmartU, and Compal would help offset the regulatory delay to FY27 in the commencement of the Vivo joint venture.



To reflect this delay, along with slower progress in display module manufacturing, the brokerage has cut its FY26E and FY27 EPS estimates by 13% and 7.5%, respectively.



Out of the 33 analysts that have coverage on Dixon Tech, 20 of them have a 'Buy' recommendation on the stock, while five of them have a 'Hold' rating. The remaining eight have a 'Sell' rating on the stock.



Nomura has the highest price target on Dixon Tech at ₹21,202, while Morgan Stanley has the lowest target for the stock on the Street at ₹8,696.



Shares of Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. settled with gains of 0.42% at ₹16,644 on Tuesday. The stock has risen over 80% in the last 12 months.
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